I have had a running dialog with friends over whether the term “netbook” will turn out to be a fad.  Some of them argued that netbooks were tied to a specific mold: small, cheap laptops designed around Atom processors.  The fad proponents forecasted that Microsoft would prod the laptop manufacturers to move away from netbooks (because Microsoft can’t make money on Windows 7 Starter Edition) – and that the manufacturers would gladly comply because margins on larger laptops were better.  In other words, everyone wins – except the consumer.

I was starting to buy into this concept.  With the introduction of Windows 7, we have also seen a slew of new and different small laptops based on different CPUs, different graphics adapters, more memory, larger disk drives – and many of these are being called laptops (not netbooks) by the OEMs.

So, what changed my mind?

This chart:

Google Trends - Laptop vs Netbook

See the blips on both lines that occurs on November 27th?  Why is that important?

November 27th was Black Friday.  The blip in netbook search volume was not tied to any news stories (there is no corresponding blip on the blue line in the news chart on the bottom).  The jump in volume was caused by consumers shopping for netbooks to give as Christmas presents.

This means that netbooks have become mainstream.

I’ve confirmed this with non-techie co-workers, friends and family.  In the past, when I mentioned to normal people that I blogged about netbooks, I got a confused look.  So, I stopped mentioning my pasttime to non-techies.

But now, suddenly, everyone knows what they are – and many people think they make a great gift.  I found a lot of parents planning to give one as a gift.

So why does this make netbooks a non-fad?

Markets are shaped, not by the products that manufacturers produce, but by the products that consumers purchase.  People vote with their dollars.  Manufacturers respond by making more of what sells – and less of what does not sell.

And it is apparent now, that netbooks will sell heavily this Christmas – and for many Christmases to come.

It means that Microsoft and the laptop manufacturers won’t be able to wave a magic wand and make netbooks disappear – because customers now want “netbooks” – and customers rule.

So count me as one excited boy.  I like netbooks.  I like blogging about netbooks.  It looks like more people than ever want to read about netbooks.

Life is good!

By the way, to make my point, I decided to find as many banners that advertised netbooks as I could find.  I’ve sprinkled them throughout the article to emphasize my point.

Related posts:

1. “Netbook” USA Search Volume Exceeds “Notebook”
2. Search for Netbooks By Price Range
3. Searching for Netbooks

Here is a chart from Google Trends.

Google Trends 2009 USA Only Chart

It appears that the crossover took place around Black Friday and is tied to a surge in search activity related to the increase in shopping. 

Of course, the search volume on “laptop” (not shown here), still exceeds these.

What make this interesting, is that it occured at a time when Microsoft and PC manufacturers are working hard to move the focus away from netbooks to laptops, where the margins are better.

One other observation, this trend is only local to the USA.

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2. Why Do I Carry a Notebook and a Netbook?
3. Linux Exceeds 1% on Client – Woo Hoo!

Included in the same report, was a breakdown of the reliability of laptops across all of the major brands.  Here is a chart included in the report (click to expand).

The study is based on over 30,000 laptops that were covered under warranties issued by Square Trade. 

This reinforces some of my preconceptions that were formed based on my personal experience, and the experiences communicated to me by friends and associates.  

• I already had a perception that reliability of Asus and Toshiba laptops was better than everyone elses. 
• I already perceived Gateway’s laptops as being less reliable than most.
• I also believed that Acer’s build quality was not as good as most in the past, but had improved over the past year or so.

On the other hand, I was a bit surprised by a few items:

• I am surprised that Apple was not at the forefront of reliability beside Asus and Toshiba.
• While I know of a number of HP owners who have had problems with their HP laptops, I did not think that HP had the the worst reliability.
• Dell is in the middle of the pack.  Based on personal experience, I expected them to be among the worst.

Keep in mind that the data here is not a random selection, so the results are not necessarily stastically accurate.  Also, remember that the study was conducted by an organization that benefits by creating fear about the reliability of laptops.  So, take all of this with a grain of salt.

What about you?  Do these findings agree with your experiences?

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Top Overall Netbook

Toshiba NB205

CompareToshiba mini NB205-N310 160GB XP
	10.1" Display (1024x600), 1.66 GHz Intel Atom N280 Processor, Intel GMA950, 1 GB RAM, 160 GB Hard Drive, 0.3 MP Webcam, 802.11b/g, Bluetooth 2.1+EDR, 6-Cell Battery, Microsoft Windows XP Home Edition, 2.93 lbs.		Today's Deals From $344.00 To $408.99 At 23 Stores See All Deals!
	Comes in: Frost White (NB205-N311) - from $349.99 Posh Pink (NB205-N313) - from $349.99 Royal Blue (NB205-N312) - from $344.00 Sable Brown (NB205-N310) - from $359.99

What’s Special about the Toshiba mini NB205:

• Sets new standard for long battery life
• Outstanding keyboard with large touchpad
• Unique and visually appealing design

Visit our Toshiba NB205 product page for more information.

Best Looking Netbook

Asus Eee PC 1008HA

CompareAsus Eee PC 1008HA 160GB XP
	10.1" Display (1024x600), 1.66 GHz Intel Atom N280 Processor, 1 GB RAM, 160 GB Hard Drive, 802.11b/g/n, Bluetooth 2.1, 1.3 Mp WebCam, Microsoft Windows XP Home Edition		Today's Deals From $330.00 To $435.95 At 16 Stores See All Deals!
	Comes in: Pearl Black (1008HA-PU1X-BK ) - from $330.00 Pearl Blue (1008HA-PU1X-BU) - from $339.95 Pearl Pink (1008HA-PU1X-PI) - from $364.99 Pearl White (1008HA-PU1X-WT) - from $359.99

What’s Special about the Asus Eee PC 1008HA:

• The Eee PC 1008HA features Asus’ new Seashell design – the look is simply stunning
• Super slim – only 1.0 inch thich but the shape makes it look even thinner
• Extremely light at only 2.2 pounds
• All of the external ports have covers, which really improves the looks

Visit our Asus Eee PC 1008HA product page for more information.

Best Value Netbook

Acer Aspire One D250

CompareAcer Aspire One D250 10" 160GB 3-Cell XP
	10.1" Display (1024x600), 1.6 GHz Intel Atom N270 Processor, 1 GB RAM, 160 GB Hard Drive, 3-Cell Battery, Microsoft Windows XP Home Edition		Today's Deals From $269.95 To $344.95 At 17 Stores See All Deals!
	Comes in: Diamond Black (AOD250-1151) - from $286.99 Pink (AOD250-1962) - from $289.99 Ruby Red (AOD250-1116) - from $272.94 Sapphire Blue (AOD250-1165) - from $279.00 Seashell White (AOD250-1326) - from $279.99

What’s Special about the Acer Aspire One D250:

• Thinner (1.0?) and lighter (2.4 – 2.8 lbs) than previous Aspire One models
• Mouse buttons are now below the touchpad
• Solid netbook at a great price – the best netbook value around

Visit our Acer Aspire One D250 product page for more information.

Last updated: August 17, 2009

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A Quick History of Netbooks

You can’t divine the future without an understanding of where have been and where you are.  So let’s  do a quick recap on netbook history.

Asus Eee PC 700-Series Netbook

While the inspiration for netbooks can be traced to the One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) initiative, the first commercial netbook was the Asus Eee PC 700-series.  With a 7-inch display, underpowered Celeron M processor, 2-4 GB solid state drive, a tiny keyboard and a price around $300, it was an instant hit when it was first shipped in early 2008.

All of the early netbooks had Linux operating systems.  When it became obvious that netbooks were going to be hugely popular, Microsoft responded by announcing a special licensing program of Windows XP for Ultra-Low Cost PCs (April 2008).  To qualify for this special XP license, Microsoft placed restrictions on the hardware.  Over time, Microsoft has expanded the list of qualifying hardware.

Around mid-year 2008, netbooks with Intel Atom processors were introduced.  These netbooks were much more powerful, ran cooler and required less power.  Intel also placed restrictions on the hardware in which Atom processors could be used.

Why do Microsoft and Intel restrict netbook hardware?  Profits, of course.  Microsoft is rumored to be making only $15 per netbook XP license.  Intel makes a lot less profit from Atom processors and chipsets compared to full laptop CPUs.

Today’s Netbook Market

Our short history lesson explains why almost every netbook has the same basic configuration: Intel Atom N270/280 processor, Intel GMA 500/950 graphics, 160 GB hard drive, 1 GB RAM, etc.

Netbooks have been artificially constrained to these specs for over a year.  It is obvious to us that this situation can’t and won’t last much longer.

But before we start exploring the future, we need to observe a few other realities in the current situation.

The initial wave of netbooks that were so hugely successful were made by Asus, Acer and MSI.  The big laptop OEMs begrudgingly added netbooks to their portfolios to protect market share, while compaining loudly that profit margins were too small in netbooks.

With everyone jumping into the netbook fray during an economic downturn, we also have a glut of inventory in the market that netbook makers are working to burn off.

Many attempts have been made over the past year to move the price point up without success.  The bottom of the netbook price range has actually dropped from around $300 to around $275.   Buyers seem willing to pay up to $400 for quality and/or special features.  But anything over $450 was passed over by most consumers.

One other note, over the past year, Microsoft successfully beat off the Linux threat and once again has full control of the PC operating system market.

Other Market Forces

Before moving to our predictions, we need to recognize a few other forces at work in the market that may have some influence on future events.

Most notably missing from the current netbook products are AMD and NVIDIA components.

AMD was caught flat-footed by the success of the Intel Atom product line and spent much effort bashing netbooks (they clearly did not - and maybe still don’t - understand netbooks). Here is a video example of AMD’s take on netbooks:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ax6GYgXhCl8

AMD’s attempt to join the party with their NEO processor has been largely unsuccessful.

NVIDIA has wanted to play but has been frozen out by Intel’s forceful bundling of the CPU and GPU.  Recently, Samsung and Lenovo were rumored to have lost their discount on Atom processors because they offered netbooks containing NVIDIA graphics chips.   (We think there is an antitrust pot of gold awaiting NVIDIA down the road).  In an effort to find traction, NVIDIA has developed a CPU/GPU combination named Tegra, based on an ARM processor design, that will offer improved video performance compared to the Intel Atom.

Google decided that they wanted to play in the smartphone business and introduced the Android operating system (based on Linux).  A group of netbook users quickly had the new OS running on an Eee PC.  Several netbook makers have hinted at plans to introduce netbooks based on Android.

Google Chrome OS Logo

Google has since announced that they are working on a new netbook operating system named Chrome OS.

Wireless carriers have begun carrying netbooks pre-configured with 3G chips offered at low-prices to customers purchasing a cellular data service contract.  These large powerhouses are accustomed to deep hardware discounts with exclusive rights and/or private branding of the hardware they sell.  Those terms are unacceptable to their new laptop OEM partners who are accustomed to being in the driver’s seat.  The arrangement creates rather strange and uneasy bedfellows.

A new group of producs dubbed “smartbooks” have appeared at recent trade shows and press releases.  Smartbooks are basically scaled-up smartphones/PDAs (built on smartphone processors and operating systems).  While a number of different form factors have been demonstrated (screens from 5″ to 10″, touchscreens vs. keyboards, etc.) there are several consistent themes:  price points significantly below netbooks,  smooth HD video (720p or better) playback, all-day battery life and built-in broadband cellular support.

One last note about the current market situation, Steve Jobs is back to work at Apple.  His primary focus is said to be the new Tablet PC that Apple is preparing to introduce.

Our Predictions

So, where does this all lead?

Windows 7 Logo

Microsoft will introduce Windows 7 in October.  They will offer a netbook version that will be somewhat crippled and that Microsoft will exert pressure on users to purchase an upgrade.

We also expect that even the netbook or Starter Edition will be more expensive than XP, adding about $25 to the cost of a netbook.

Based on what we have seen of Windows 7, we believe it will be a big hit and Microsoft will be able to retire XP in short order.

Intel’s next-generation Atom processors (project named Pine Trail) will see their way into the market around the first of the year.  The advantage they offer is integration of the graphics processor (GPU) into the CPU, which will yield improved video performance while drawing less power.  We think it is a no-brainer that the new Intel Atom processors will be successful.

Desperate to differentiate their products, netbook manufacturers will finally break the current netbook mold.  Starting in the fourth quarter and really exploding in 2010, we will see a plethora of new netbooks and ultralight laptops in the $300 - $700 price range.  So much so that the line between what is a netbook and what is a laptop will become completely blurred.

While the PC makers are totally engrossed in trying to profit and protect marketshare in the netbook space, smartbooks will surprise them by creating a whole new market niche in the $200 - $400 range.

Smartbooks will arrive in a wide variety of sizes and flavors.  We expect the most popular to be smaller tablet-style (think iPhone on steroids), but we also expect versions with keyboards that resemble current laptops.  Both will run some flavor of Linux operating system (Android, Chrome OS, Moblin, etc.).

Smartbooks will be marketed in two channels.  Wireless carrier like AT&T, Verizon and Sprint will drop their current netbooks and offer private-labeled smartbooks at prices just above smartphones. Here is a promotional video from Qualcomm (a longtime player in the cellular device market).

www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFkC_V_OqCg

Other smartbooks will find their way to retailers.  The mini-laptop style will be sold in direct competition with netbooks.  The tablet style will offer an interesting alternative.

Final Prediction - Apple Wins

Our final prediction is that Apple’s much-rumored tablet will be a smartbook.  We predict that this new product (iPad?) will follow in the footsteps of iPod and iPhone and take the market by storm.

That is what our crystal ball says.

Right or wrong, we think this should be fun to watch!

We are almost sure that we won’t be 100% right.  You must have some ideas of your own.  Drop us a comment below and tell us what you see as the future for netbooks.

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Samsung N310

Just click on the link below to see more details.

Win a new Samsung Go from Buy.com!

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I must say that I’m very impressed with the Toshiba NB205.  I’ve personally always favored the Samsung Netbooks.  This will be my first personal netbook that is not a Samsung.

Check out the video and stay tuned for a review in the near future.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=266G0opwzXY

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www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2JpF8uMcSc

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Earlier we reviewed Google Android as a netbook OS.  We also published tutorials on installing Android and Moblin on bootable USB memory sticks so that you can test these OSs without actually installing them on your hard drive.

Today I’m going to show you Moblin 2.0 Beta running on an Asus Eee PC 1008HA.

Booting Moblin

I decided to install Moblin 2.0 to the hard drive of the Asus Eee PC 1008HA to give the operating system a true run.  The boot time was about 45 seconds.  Not bad for a Linux based OS (note that I did not install the quick boot option).

Once I was booted into the Operating System I come right into the MyZone Screen.

Now you may notice that the MyZone main screen has a lot of information on it.  Once you configure your RSS feeds, Twitter Account, Etc… you will see that the right panel will display all the latest updates.

The middle pane shows all the latest media, web pages, and other similar items that you have recently viewed.  Last is the left pane which holds your calendar entries and current tasks.

MyZone gives you a quick and easy view of your mobile life right on the main screen.  This is a very nice feature of Moblin.

Exploring Moblin

Moblin is built on top of a Linux kernel. You can access the console through the Application Zone.

As you can see you will have access to all your typical Linux commands, and this will give you the capability to install any Linux-based applications as well as full capability to configure the system to your heart’s content.

You can access all of Moblin’s applications through the Application Zone.  In the picture below you will see the Zone Menu at the top of the screen.

You can navigate through all of the standard zones by moving your mouse across the tabs at the top of the screen.

Managing the Network

I found that managing your network connections was a snap in Moblin.  Clicking on the wireless icon on the top tool bar will open your network management application.

I simply clicked on my wireless network and added my WPA key.  This took seconds to connect up and start browsing the Internet.

Media

Mobin has your typical media player and picture viewer.

This beta version was missing a number of codecs.  I tried playing some divx, and wmv files and had no luck.

Moblin installed a sample video,  which played well on the Asus 1008HA (although it was a bit grainy).

Here is a picture of what the media library looks like.

Games

Now what would an Operating System be without some games to kill your free time.  Moblin has added a handful of games to make your idle time more enjoyable.  Here are a few pictures of the Frozen Bubble 2 game.

Summary

The Moblin user interface is simple and easy enough for any user to learn.  Gone are the spooky days when it took a real hacker to know how to even use Linux.

However, the Moblin OS is that is centered around the mobile user.  It does not attempt to be a comprehensive replacement for a typical laptop OS.

If you are looking for a full-blown Operating System that does everything  Windows XP or Windows 7 does then you will be disappointed.

Moblin is based around social networking sites like Twitter and Facebook.  You will also find build in messengers like Google Talk, Yahoo Messenger, and MSN Messenger.

Moblin is definitely aimed for your social butterflies.

The beta was noticably slow when running some applications.  The Internet Browser was also very slow when loading web pages.  I am sure that everything will be optimized before the production release.

Overall,  I’m impressed with Moblin.  I am happy to see something really different coming to the netbook world.  It will be very interesting to whether customers embrace Moblin when it is finally released.

What are your thoughts?  Will netbook buyers flock to an operating system focused on enhancing the social networking experience – or will they want their netbook to operate like a normal laptop?

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